Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
