A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
